Fox News Voter Poll: Change candidate Mamdani defeats legacy political figures

Democrat Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayoral election, securing broad swaths of the electorate and defeating independent candidate Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa. His campaign for a new direction was the answer many New Yorkers were searching for.

Preliminary results from The Fox News Voter Poll, a survey of more than 4,700 registered voters in the city, shows that Mamdani’s road to victory was aided by a young, racially diverse coalition of New Yorkers. He won most demographic groups by a wide margin.

Mamdani, who will be one of New York’s youngest mayors, benefited from a strong coalition of young voters. Three-quarters of voters under age 30 voted for the Democrat, while older voters, namely seniors, broke for Cuomo by double digits.

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Voters under 30 had the most intense support for the Democratic candidate, with over three-quarters supporting him.                  

Mamdani was the favored candidate across all racial groups, performing best among Black and Asian voters. The race was closer among Hispanic voters, who ultimately broke for Mamdani by single digits. Cuomo lost White voters by a small margin, while a boost in support from White male voters helped him remain competitive.

Mamdani was also favored among voters with college degrees, while voters without college degrees went for Cuomo.

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Two thirds of Democrats sided with Mamdani over Cuomo, while just 3 in 10 Democrats voted for the former Democratic governor. After President Donald Trump gave a last-minute endorsement of Andrew Cuomo, 7 in 10 Republicans voted for the independent candidate rather than their own party nominee, Curtis Sliwa, who earned the support from about a quarter of his party. The largest portion of independents supported Cuomo, while a smaller number supported Mamdani.  

Around a quarter of New York City voters would describe themselves as a democratic socialist. Among Democrats, that number jumps to nearly 4 in 10. By wide margins, these voters back the self-described democratic socialist.

Among New York City Republicans, about half identified as MAGA. They split their vote between Sliwa and Cuomo, with about two-thirds favoring the independent.

Jewish voters backed Cuomo by a nearly two-to-one margin. Among this key voting bloc, there was a clear generational divide: about half of Jewish voters under 45 supported Mamdani while about 7 in 10 of those over 45 supported Cuomo.      

Cuomo also maintained winning margins among Catholics and other Christian voters. Mamdani, who will become the first Muslim mayor of New York City, won the majority of Muslims, non-religious voters and Protestants.

Most New York voters felt the candidates’ positions on Israel were at least a minor factor in deciding their vote for mayor. Those who said it was a major factor in their vote were evenly split, while those who felt it was only a minor factor preferred Mamdani. Israel was a major factor in the vote for about half of Jewish voters, who overwhelmingly broke for Cuomo. 

In a hypothetical two-way matchup between Mamdani and Cuomo, voters split their support between the two leading candidates, with Mamdani still receiving a higher share than Cuomo, albeit by a smaller margin.

But voter excitement for Mamdani was decisive – most of his supporters said their vote was for him rather than against his opponents. Cuomo supporters were split: slightly more said their vote was against his opponents than for him. Sliwa supporters were particularly enthusiastic about their candidate: three quarters of his supporters said their vote was for the Republican.

Among voters who made their decision in the past week, Cuomo held a double-digit lead over Mamdani. For those who have known before October or earlier, Mamdani was their favored candidate.

Despite national attention in the election, local issues drove most voters, not national figures: about two-thirds said President Donald Trump was not a factor in their vote, while about 3 in 10 said their vote was in opposition to Trump. Most New York City voters disapprove of the job he is doing as president.

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In a city with three times as many Democrats as Republicans, Democrats were viewed favorably by just over half of voters. Results by party show there are some growing pains among Democrats. A sizable number – about 1 in 4 – view their own party unfavorably. The Republican Party is viewed unfavorably by about two-thirds of voters overall.

First-time voters made up over 15% of the city’s electorate and overwhelmingly favored Mamdani. He also received majority support from non-native New Yorkers, while those who were born and raised in the city backed the former governor.

Affordability was a defining issue in this race. Roughly 6 in 10 voters identified the cost of living as the most important issue facing the city, followed at a distance by crime. Voters prioritizing the cost of living went for Mamdani, while crime-concerned voters backed Cuomo.

Against this backdrop of rising costs, economic sentiment leaned decidedly negative, with most describing the city’s economy as not so good or poor. Voters with a negative outlook split their support among Mamdani and Cuomo and those with a positive view preferred Mamdani. 

In terms of their own economic situation, the bulk of voters said they were holding steady. These voters gave about equal shares of their vote to Mamdani and Cuomo. For the remaining portion who are falling behind, Mamdani was again the candidate of choice.

Closely entwined with affordability concerns, over 8 in 10 voters said the cost of housing where they live was at least a minor problem, including roughly 7 in 10 who described it as a major problem. After running on a platform prioritizing affordability and rent stabilization, Mamdani received the majority of voters who feel housing is a problem.

About 6 in 10 New York City voters are renters, and this group backed Mamdani by substantive margins. For the other 4 in 10 voters who are homeowners, Cuomo was their candidate of choice.

About 6 in 10 voters feel raising city taxes would do more to hurt the city’s economy than help. Cuomo took the support of this group, while those who felt taxes would help the city preferred the self-described Democratic socialist.

Crime was a significant issue throughout the campaign. About 8 in 10 voters felt it was at least a minor problem. Cuomo did best among voters who described crime as a major problem.

Immigration ranked low out of five issues tested in the survey, with only 1 in 10 voters saying it was the most important issue facing the city. More voters think the next mayor should not cooperate with the Trump administration on immigration enforcement. Those who wanted to prioritize cooperation sided with Cuomo, while Mamdani voters preferred the opposition.

In an election between experienced politicians and a relative newcomer, voters were divided between wanting a candidate who will bring needed change and one who has the right experience. Voters looking for change sided with Mamdani while voters prioritizing experience preferred Cuomo. For those who wanted a candidate to work for people like them, Mamdani received the largest share of support.

Voters overall saw Cuomo’s policies as more realistic than the other candidates. The largest share of voters – about 6 in 10 – said the former governor’s policies were realistic, compared to just 4 in 10 who said the same about Mamdani and Sliwa.

METHODOLOGY 

The Fox News Voter Poll is based on a survey conducted by SSRS with New York City registered voters. This survey was conducted October 22 to November 4, 2025, concluding at the end of voting on Election Day. The poll combines data collected from registered voters online and by telephone with data collected in-person from Election Day voters at 30 precincts across the city. In the final step, all the pre-election survey respondents and Election Day exit poll respondents are combined by adjusting the share of voting mode (absentee, early-in-person, and Election Day) based on the estimated composition of the city’s final electorate. Once votes are counted, the survey results are also weighted to match the overall results in each state. Results among more than 4,700 New York City voters interviewed have an estimated margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points, including the design effects. The error margin is larger among subgroups.

By mfnnews