Japan at the Crossroads

Japan is by nature a rather conservative country and has managed to preserve many of the most cherished aspects of its civilization and culture for hundreds of years. This island nation only began to modernise in the late 19th century by recruiting help from Western engineers to build a railway system that is now arguably the best in the world. Clean, cheap, and efficient, the Shinkansen enables passengers to cross the country in just five hours. As has happened whenever and wherever it has been introduced, the railway system revolutionized Japanese society, but it did not destroy the most fundamental aspects of its culture. Japan remains to this day a harmonious, respectful, and high-trust society. She has learned to innovate without destroying too much in the process.

Sanae Takaichi was chosen to be the new head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 5 and confirmed by the Diet, Japan’s parliament, as Japan’s new prime minister on October 21. A close associate and cabinet minister in former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration, she is Japan’s first female Prime Minister. Takaichi has promised to increase defence spending, restrict migration, and deport illegal immigrants. Her policy on immigration can be seen as a course correction and repudiation of that of her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, who opened immigration beyond acceptable levels and thereby lost support. It is notable that Japan’s new administration is a minority government that has formed a coalition with another conservative party, quirkily named the Japan Innovation Party (JIP). This is the face of conservatism in Japan today. (RELATED: Japan Set to Elect Female Nationalist, Pro-Taiwan, Anti-China Hawk as Next PM)

During her election campaign, Takaichi complained that tourists were mistreating the curious deer that roam freely throughout her home city of Nara. “I want to have a calm, mutually considerate relationship with foreigners,” she declaimed. In this vein, she has no truck with false asylum claims and is a proponent of remigration: “Those who come with economic motives and claim to be refugees … will be sent home.” Tough talk. As an admirer of legendary British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, Takaichi often wears blue suits. (RELATED: Reagan–Thatcher, Trump–Takaichi, and Cold War II)

To emphasize the new administration’s stance on foreign influence, Finance Minister Kimi Onada has also been appointed “minister in charge of a society of well-ordered and harmonious coexistence with foreign nationals” — a post invented by Takaichi’s predecessor, but which now takes on a new meaning. Onoda has promised to “strictly handle foreign nationals who do not follow the rules,” and remove those whose “crimes and misbehaviour are causing anxiety and a sense of unfairness among Japanese people.” (RELATED: Japan’s MAGA Moment)

What is she referring to?

Before the election, there were mass demonstrations in Saitama Prefecture by thousands of Japanese carrying Japanese flags reminiscent of the September 13 mass demonstration in the U.K. called the “Unite the Kingdom Rally.” At the U.K. rally, about a million Brits carrying Union Jack and St. George’s Cross flags chanted nationalist slogans in opposition to mass migration. In Japan, the protest was against Muslims, specifically Kurds who were let into Japan on an expedited basis for humanitarian reasons because they were being persecuted in the Middle East, but have been unwilling to adapt to the customs and mores of their adopted country. In Kyoto, a number of Halal restaurants have popped up in recent years with “Free Palestine” signs in the windows, but a cultural disconnect in the bathrooms with illustrated signs showing patrons how to use the toilets. Simply put, Japan wants harmony and respect from those who have been given asylum, safety, and shelter. She has a strong tradition of being hospitable to guests, but does not want to be colonized.

Nor is the concern only with Muslim immigrants. Japan’s previous prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, made a deal with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India to import 500,000 Indians, only 10 percent of whom would be skilled workers, and the same number of Japanese were supposed to move to India. It is hard to say how many Japanese would actually want to move to India, but Modi’s motives in exporting its population are abundantly clear.

India has a serious demographic problem. Because of a societal preference for males through selective abortion, it now has an excess of 45 to 59 million more men than women, and most of the excess males are young, with the highest excess in the 20-29 age bracket. This has led to social stress. Studies show that this leads to increased crime, violence, trafficking, and exploitation of women. The government has tried to fix this problem through education, but so far, not very successfully. Another option is exporting males. India’s government is drafting a bill called the “Overseas Mobility Bill” to expand and accelerate the already huge migration of Indians into jobs throughout the developed world. The exchange between India and Japan is part of its effort. This campaign has two purposes; first of all, it gets rid of some of its excess male population, and secondly, it provides a great deal of revenue in the form of remittances. Remittances presently make up 3.4 percent of India’s GDP. It is a major source of foreign exchange for India, and greater than direct foreign investment, and just below that of Mexico, which is in the range of 3.5 and 4.5 percent.

Japan has its own well-known demographic problem. Despite its conservative bent, she is failing spectacularly in preserving a viable rate of population replacement. Japan has the third-oldest population in the world, and deaths have outnumbered births since 2007. Moreover, her fertility rate is a dismal 1.15, way below the replacement rate of 2.1. Because of these trends, Japan’s population is projected to fall from 124 million to 87 million by 2070 at the present rate of demographic decline. It’s not that the Japanese do not love children; in fact, they are one of the most child-loving cultures in the world. They just aren’t having very many of them. For a variety of reasons, in Japan as in the West, fewer people are getting married and the divorce rate is rising. The good news is that the fertility rate of those who are getting and staying married is 1.9, which is just below replacement. (RELATED: Desired Fertility Is Too Low to Avoid Depopulation)

During his recent visit to Japan, President Trump had a very warm meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. They signed “Japan is Back” hats, which of course echo MAGA hats but also hearken to a slogan of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had a close relationship with Trump and who praised Takaichi, then a member of his cabinet, to Trump on a previous visit. The new prime minister has promised to accelerate defense spending to the 2 percent of GDP level, and undoubtedly, Trump encouraged her to do so in order to strengthen the defense relationship between the two nations in order to contain China. But it is highly unlikely that the president encouraged her to open her borders.

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