Republicans may go nuclear to end the shutdown

Something wicked this way comes. What was once a far-fetched fear is now looking increasingly plausible, even likely: That Senate Republicans will blow up the filibuster to end the government shutdown.

This would be the ultimate nuclear option, toppling the last major hurdle to single party rule in Washington.

By removing the 60-vote threshold for most Senate votes, the current Republican majority — and any future Senate majority of either party — would be empowered to ram its agenda through without so much as consulting the other party.

Despite the dangers, Republicans are openly entertaining it. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said last week that he is “not willing to see children in my state go hungry … over some Senate procedure.” And Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said of ending the filibuster, “If we can’t get anything done, that’s what [Democrats] are gonna force.”

There are three reasons this scenario is becoming more likely. First, Democrats have no leverage. In any negotiation, leverage only exists when the other side wants something, and President Trump doesn’t place a high value on reopening the government. To him, the shutdown is an opportunity to act unilaterally, fire government workers, and save money. That’s why he has said he won’t even negotiate until Democrats pass a continuing resolution to end the shutdown.

Second, Democratic leaders view backing down as politically impossible. The far left already sees them as incapable of standing up to Trump, and they cannot bear the perception of losing this standoff right as midterm season kicks off. This is why Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has broken with longstanding practice by refusing to accept a clean continuing resolution, potentially creating the very conditions that bring about his worst nightmare: Republicans ending the shutdown on their terms. 

Third, the real-world impacts of the shutdown are about to get worse. State and local programs like food assistance and public health clinics will begin to shutter. The broader economy will suffer. And with the issue of Affordable Care Act subsidies unresolved, millions will see higher premiums or disrupted coverage just as open enrollment begins.

As this happens, public pressure on the Senate will escalate, and the nuclear option may feel like the path of least resistance for Republican leaders. 

For his part, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) vowed back in January that he would preserve the filibuster during his tenure. But notably, he has yet to reiterate that pledge during the shutdown. Trump has also stayed mum so far, but we know he pressed Republicans to drop the filibuster during his first term and that Senate Republicans have braced for him to make the same demand again. He may soon have his excuse.

But going nuclear would have devastating and permanent consequences. Once it has been removed, neither party will have any incentive to reimpose it while in power.

The filibuster exists to force the Senate to be what it was intended to be: a deliberative body, the greatest in the world. Eliminating it would destroy the last guardrail that forces compromise and restrains each party’s worst impulses. Even a narrow carveout to end this shutdown would set a precedent that will be used by future majorities — Democratic or Republican — to ram through sweeping legislation. The resulting policy actions would drive our citizenry further down the road of division and rage.

So how do we avert the disaster? We need a Hail Mary play from bipartisan leaders of courage and conviction.

It can begin with a coalition of Republican senators and pragmatic House Democrats who have not staked their reputations on an all-or-nothing shutdown fight — leaders like Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, and commonsense House Democrats like Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.).

Think back to the infrastructure deal in 2021: A bipartisan group worked in advance to shape the deal as an alternative to Build Back Better, and they were ready to push it forward when all else had failed.

We need the same now — a group to begin preparing a credible deal to reopen the government, even if it appears now that there is no appetite for one. That way, when public pressure crests and lawmakers feel the heat, going nuclear won’t appear to be the only path out.

A deal will, of course, require compromise. It will mean neither side fully “wins” this battle. But it will also mean America doesn’t lose through a permanent and irrevocable blunder. And shouldn’t that be the goal of both parties?

Nancy Jacobson is founder and CEO of No Labels.

By mfnnews