U.S. Indo-Pacific Drift Is China’s Opportunity
The visit of Cheng Li-wun, chairwoman of the Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan’s largest opposition party, to the People’s Republic of China marked a historic development in China-Taiwan relations. It was the first such visit by a KMT chair in the last decade, and the meeting between Cheng Li-wun and the Chinese President Xi Jinping hinted at diplomatic rapprochement. China also announced a set of 10 incentive measures for Taiwan, including tourist visits from Shanghai and Fujian province to Taiwan, allowing Taiwanese television dramas, and facilitating food sales. (RELATED: Trumpian Geoeconomics and Indo-Pacific Geopolitics)
The diplomatic rapprochement, however, is not driven by a domestic impulse for reconciliation or reunification. It is a direct response to Washington’s growing indifference towards its Indo-Pacific allies. Since his return to the Oval Office, President Trump has limited his reliance on QUAD as the predominant security arrangement to counter China in the Indo-Pacific. (RELATED: The End of Atlanticism)
On the contrary, President Trump has prioritized weaponized interdependence in the domains of trade, technology, and advanced semiconductor chips as the means to counter China’s technological and industrial rise. This approach is evident through his predilection for tariffs as a tool to economically, though unsuccessfully, coerce China.
This American apathy towards its Indo-Pacific allies became glaring during the U.S.-Israel War on Iran. The U.S. relocated its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system from the Korean Peninsula to the Middle East in order to replace the lost batteries and interceptors. In addition, the U.S. sent thousands of marines and the USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship based in Japan, to the Middle East. (RELATED: Anchors Away: The Perils of Our Shipbuilding Imbalance)
This force posture diversion exacerbates the security concerns of the American Indo-Pacific allies, including Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The waning U.S. security umbrella implies that these Indo-Pacific allies can no longer rely on American security assurances. The fragility of the American extended deterrence was further revealed when the U.S. categorically failed to protect its Gulf allies from Iranian drones and missile barrages. Trump’s strategic priorities compel its Indo-Pacific allies to reorient their strategic direction and alleviate tensions with China, as the US most likely will leave its Indo-Pacific allies high and dry.
The growing unreliability of the American extended deterrence and its stature as a strategic guardian is palpably driving Taiwanese strategic recalibration. The Taiwanese politicians are becoming wary of the American reassurances and view American perception of Taiwan as the Ukraine of Indo-Pacific.
The U.S. continues to supply weapons worth billions of dollars, propelling its military industrial complex, while fueling discrepancies between Taiwan and the PRC. In December 2024, the Biden administration announced $571 million in military funding, followed by the Trump administration’s announcement of a massive $11 billion military deal with Taiwan in December 2025.
This armament alone will not save Taiwan in the case of an armed conflict; however, it will lead to massive bloodshed and destruction. The Taiwanese leaders are realizing that, much akin to Ukraine, the American elite will forget their woes in a few years, leaving them at the mercy of China. The hoax of the American strategic umbrella is becoming evident through President Trump’s indifference towards his Indo-Pacific partners, especially Taiwan.
President Trump has demanded that Taiwan pay the U.S. for defending it against China. In reality, the U.S. does not have any military presence on the island and cannot actively defend the country in case of a Chinese onslaught. President Trump signaled strategic detachment from Taiwan after Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela. President Trump asserted that, though the US operation in Venezuela does not provide China a precedent, it is up to President Xi how he deals with Taiwan. President Trump’s America First approach gives the least importance to protecting Taiwanese sovereignty.
The visit of the Kuomintang’s chair to the People’s Republic of China demonstrates that Taiwan recognizes shifting American priorities and no longer wishes to serve as a pawn for the US interests. Taiwan’s rapprochement with the PRC is more than hedging; it is an indication of shifting regional alliances and an application of adaptive realism. It is not merely a political convergence, but Taiwan’s strategic requirement to step out of the illusion of the American security umbrella.
The visit of Cheng Li-wun to the PRC is an attempt to revive the bilateral relations and transcend political confrontation and mutual hostility. The reinstatement of tourist visits will enhance people-to-people engagement and strengthen social bonds. The facilitation of food sales and the alleviation of inspection standards for food and fish will ameliorate the economic ties between China and Taiwan. The exchange of dramas is expected to foster cultural linkages and bring the two nations closer. The timing of this deepening convergence is juxtaposed with Trump’s drifting focus from the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan.
The Kuomintang (KMT) has historically been the party that led the emblem of Taiwan’s separate identity and, for decades, opposed the idea of reunification with mainland China. The recent correspondence indicates a changing mindset of the Kuomintang’s leadership, prioritizing a calculated accommodation over US-backed confrontation. The Taiwanese drift towards the CRP will continue in the wake of persisting American indifference towards Taiwan, highlighting the possibility of a historic amelioration of relations once the Kuomintang returns to power in Taiwan.
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Hamza Zaman is an assistant research associate at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Pakistan. He holds an M.Phil. degree in International Relations from Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
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